Against economic ‘headwinds’


HAS the Aquino government, gone all too cautious to keep on the Tuwid na Daan politically, gotten so niggardly with vital public spending as to appear to be stifling growth in the economy? Observers at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas confirmed this impression.

The benefits of the low interest- rate regime enhanced by monetary measures crafted at the BSP, they said, were stymied, “capped by the anemic spending policy of the Aquino administration, as it sought to ensure corruption-free government infrastructure contracts.”

Not to mention that the private sector was hugely unable to boost economic growth amid protracted delays in the launching of the administration flagship Public-Private Partnership program. Yes, for the vaunted frenzy to approve the national budget before 2011 bowed out.

But even as BSP Gov.Amando Tetangco warned of the economy wading against economic “headwinds” from the faltering American economy, hobbled resolution of the European debt crisis, and the slowdown in China which called for “circuit breakers,” the central bank chief minimized the problem on the side of the Philippine economy.

“The Philippines appears to have a greater need for just ‘series cables’ to jumpstart the economy, keep it moving, then allow for the growth rate to shift to higher gear and sustain the speed at cruising rate,” Tetangco said.

Alright, but then again, it’s precisely on the growth issue, the expansion of the gross domestic product, that the proverbial rub lies. As dismal a science as economics has been perceived to be even by experts in the subject – so have Tetangco’s fellow economic gazers dismally differed.

Though largedly expected to prosper between three to 4.5 percent in 2012, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga has projected the GDP to grow by a heftier six percent. That’s to hitch the GDP to the promised heavier public spending from the P1.8-trillion national outlay now in place.

Paderanga trusts that the state disbursements for infrastructure projects and social services could still post a higher than five-percent growth in the 2011 year-ender probably from the National Statistics Office. He also takes note of the spike in Christmas buying spree due to heavier overseas Filipino workers’ remittances.

Former Budget secretary Benjamin Diokno would hear none of Paderanga’s optimistic business outlook. “He didn’t say overly bullish or bullshit outright,” resident kibitzer Jose stressed in relaying the latter’s remarks.

What Diokno said was, “I don’t share Paderanga’s exuberance. The prospect for the world economy has turned from bad to worse. Overseas remittances, exports, and foreign direct investments are bound to be affected by the global uncertaintly.”

Well, Jose, at least we can see fundamental mutual respect in the manner Diokno and Paderanga disagree which, to my mind, could be just as significant as the matter over they differ diametrically. Yeah, no need to fear that the clash of opinion could run against the “headwinds” of public dismay.



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