After a very bad year, the country is in for better times ahead, and this early signs are pointing to a truly happy new year.
People are really looking forward to improved overall economic conditions, even as the US and Europe are having a hard time sorting out their respective financial woes.
And overseas Filipinos deserve a resounding applause for saving the day — a usual. Deft handling by economic managers of domestic fundamentals also helped the country navigate dire straits.
While the country’s economic growth as measured by the gross domestic product has been downscaled by multilateral financial institutions to as low as three percent, key sectors of the economy – overseas remittances and joblessness — are showing encouraging signs.
Filipinos working and living abroad sent home a record $1.78 billion in October, shoring up the economy whose growth has been slowing as a result of the government’s week spending and the country’s weak exports following the economic downturn in the US and the debt crisis in Europe.
“This is the highest monthly level of remittances recorded thus far,” Bangko Sentral Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. said. “It eclipsed the $1.76 billion in monthly remittances registered in June this year.’’
Still, while the remittances in October hit a record, its growth rate of just 6.2 percent from $1.67 billion represented a slowdown from the 8.4-percent increase in September and the 11.1-percent growth in August.
But the remittances for the entire year could reach $19.84 billion if the trend continues. The BSP expects this year’s remittances to grow by seven percent from the $18.76 billion sent home in 2010.
The remittances for the first 10 months of this year rose seven percent to $16.534 billion from $15.456 billion a year ago.
Meanwhile, the country’s jobless rate hit 6.4 percent in October, the lowest level in four years, according to the Labor Force Survey of the National Statistics Office.
The NSO said there were 2.64 million unemployed people in the country, lower than the 2.8 million reported in July, when the survey was last undertaken, and a year ago.
The 6.4-percent unemployment rate for October was also the lowest since October 2007 when the rate was 6.3 percent.
The unemployment rate has been on a downward trend since January, when it stood at 7.4 percent. The jobless rate fell further to 7.2 percent in April and to 7.1 percent in July,.
The NSCB said the total labor force was at 41.2 million, higher than 39.9 million in July.
Meanwhile, the BSP’s Consumer Expectations Survey for the fourth quarter showed an improvement in the outlook for interest rates, employment, and the exchange rate.
“Fewer respondents anticipated an increase in the unemployment rate over the next 12 months, indicating an expected improvement in the employment situation in the year ahead, according to the latest quarterly CES.
“Likewise, fewer respondents expected interest rates to go up in the next 12 months.”
It said: “Respondents expected inflation to reach 9.6 percent, up from 8.5 percent in the Q3 2011 survey, reflecting expectations of higher prices in the year ahead given… More respondents also expected the peso to appreciate against the US dollar in the next 12 months due to sustained investment and overseas Filipinos’ remittance inflows.”
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