THE country is feared to suffer a major rice shortage next year, contrary to the rosy pronouncements of Department of Agriculture Sec. Prospero Alcala. This was revealed by a career official in the department who urged the DA chief and President Benigno Aquino III to review the data they are quoting to support their projection that the Philippines will be exporting rice by 2013.

“Hindi namin malaman kung saan hinuhugot ang mga binabanggit na numero ni Sec. Alcala. 

“Maging noong panahon ng Masagana 99 sa pamumuno ni Pangulong Marcos, hindi tumataas ng napakalaki ang ating ani ng palay,” the official explained.

As a result of the positive report of Sec. Alcala, Pres. Aquino, who is attending the summit meeting of Asia-Pacific countries (APEC) in Hawaii, told the foreign media of stable rice supply for the country for the rest of the year and the lowering of the country’s import target for next year.

“Halos 10 porsyentong pagtaas ng ani ang ini-report ni Sec. Alcala kay Pangulong Noynoy; maski noong panahon ni (Pang.) Marcos, pinakamalaki na ang 7 porsyento na taas ng ani bawa’t taon sa Masagana 99, kung saan may pautang, mga binhi at abono na ipinamumudmod sa mga magsasaka. 

“Kaya’t talagang hindi kapani-paniwala ang ganito kalaking ani, lalo na at binagyo pa,” the DA insider said, referring to supertyphoons ‘Pedring’ and ‘Quiel.’ Badly damaged by the typhoons was North and Central Luzon, particularly, Nueva Ecija, which is dubbed the country’s ‘rice granary.’

The DA chief actually reported to Pres. Aquino that despite the typhoons and other negative factors, the country’s rice production climbed to 14.5 percent in the first half from a year ago, with annual output in the third quarter expected to grow 22 percent, not taking into account the devastations caused by Pedring and Quiel.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) in Central Luzon later reported the typhoons caused some P6.4 billion in damage to agriculture, which is on top of the P415 million worth of damage to infrastructure, said Nigel Lontoc, OCD assistant director.

The DA also earlier established that some 760,000 metric tons of ‘unmilled rice’ (palay) was lost.

For next year, the government believed an import figure of 500,000 tons would be sufficient to cover the country’s rice requirement, which is a far cry from this year’s import of 860,000 tons and a staggering 2.45 million tons in 2010.

“Malaki ang problema kapag sablay ang datos ng produksyon, pagka’t hindi handa ang pamahalaan sa pag-angkat ng kakulangan,” the source further warned.

“Sisipa ang presyo ng bigas, dahil tulad nang lahat ng paninda, ‘law of supply and demand’ ang mananaig sa pamilihan.  Kawawa ang mga mahihirap na (posibleng) muling pipila para sa isa o dalawang kilo ng bigas,” he added.